Ebola Still Percolating

Although the war on Ebola is clearly making progress, you can’t rest easy yet. There are still areas where Ebola is percolating, pushing at its boundaries, and testing various models of spreading and bypassing the current protocols.

The problem with diseases is they are constantly adapting to spread and multiply. Give them a sufficient head start and enough time, and they will eventually find what they need.

Along these lines, an avian Flu strain is spreading among livestock in Europe. In the coming months, it will likely produce a lot of virus particles, with lots of varying abilities and aptitudes. Some may jump to pigs somewhere, some may jump back, and there is no telling where it could go. The 1918 avian flu took out 3-5% of the world population, probably focusing on city populations, and all it needed to do so, was a single optimized virus to make it into a single human.

What fascinates me is that the diseases are coming, even as the population has not yet been significantly immuno-compromised. Has resource restriction already begun in nature, and it is merely being held back in humans by industrialization? Is there some other mechanism at play, increasing disease susceptibility in animals? Does the origin of K have a much deeper root than a mere superficial resource restriction? Is there some other cosmic variable, which periodically triggers a culling of the herd? Are we entering such a period now?

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Steve
Steve
9 years ago

Possibly the solar maximums and minimums had a greater affect when less agricultural knowledge was widespread.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming–Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html

The rise of Genghis Khan correlates with a 15 year wet period. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/03/140310-genghis-khan-mongols-mongolia-climate-change/

One of the main controls on rabbits is disease, by sending food and medicine the result is more low quality offspring and diseases that our medicine wont cure. Sickle cell disease that helps protect against malaria hampers in many other areas.

Ron
Ron
9 years ago

You are talking divine punishment. I think of it as a form of divine mercy. At some point God recognizes that the only true mercy left to give humanity is to allow us a (limited) experiencing of the consequences of our decisions. Much like a father would decide to let his out of control son suffer a serious ass kicking or some jail time, or to disown the kid for a while so he’ll be forced to find himself.

I think He would rather we chose self awareness, prayer, and to change our ways to good. But well…

״therefore, my sin I will acknowledge to You, and my iniquity I do not hide; I said ‘I will confess my sin to my God’ you had already forgiven the iniquity of my sin, Selah. For this, let every man of devotion pray to You in a time when You may be found; indeed when mighty waters threaten, they will not reach him”. Psalm 32:5-6

On that topic, I cannot properly express what a benefit this site has been to me on a personal level. While it certainly has potential on a political level as well, I can personally attest that your posts can aid people on a purely personal level of growth as well. Your advice on how to change ones amygdala situation has been hard to follow, but very rewarding.

dc.sunsets
dc.sunsets
9 years ago

AC, as you know the flu pandemic of 1918 coincided with a number of conditions not now in play. Aspirin’s widespread use may have depleted vitamin C levels leaving people immunocompromised and the fact remains that most deaths attributed to “influenza” were then, as now, actually due to secondary bacterial pneumonia. In 1918 pneumonia was still probably pushing 66% mortality in light of the absence of anti-infective drugs.

I never tire of laughing at today’s flu vaccine hype, the foundation of which is “35,000 Americans die from the flu each year.” The CDC’s own annual report on causes of death typically cite only about 1,500 deaths directly attributable to influenza, with the rest being conflated with (largely bacterial) pneumonia, on which there is no data documenting the ~33,500 difference having positive influenza serology tests.

Pandemic disease and social mood declines (which cause myriad social calamities) go hand in hand, so it’s likely one or more diseases will emerge to fulfill that expectation. I simply don’t expect a repeat of the 1918 pandemic, I expect no more than harmonic similarities.